In the final instalment of our blog series focusing on the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2023, we look at Resource Rivalries: Four Emerging Futures, and delve into the possibilities foresight and preparedness offer.

Chapters one and two of the Report analyse emerging and rapidly accelerating risks over the current, two-, and 10-year time frames. However, these risks can interact with each other to form a “polycrisis”. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), a polycrisis is “a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects, such that the overall impact exceeds the sum of each part.”

In part one of this blog series, we examined the most significant global risks for 2023, which were chosen by the 2022/23 Global Risks Perceptions Survey. Following are the top five current risks:

1. Energy supply crisis
2. Cost-of living crisis
3. Rising inflation
4. Food supply crisis
5. Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure.

In part two of this blog series, we examined tomorrow’s catastrophes and risks over the longer term (10 years), which could be reduced by collective action today. The global risks landscape in the longer term is primarily characterised by worsening environmental risks. These current and long-term risks could potentially create a “polycrisis” fuelled by a natural resources shortage by 2030.

Resource Rivalries: Four Emerging Futures 

As we look ahead to 2030, our ability to match supply and demand for resources and the severity of the associated polycrises will depend on two factors. The first is the level of global cooperation that allows the flow of resources across borders. The second is the impact of climate change on the supply of natural resources and the pace of the low-carbon transition.

By considering these two axes, four potential future scenarios for 2030 are envisioned.

From the Report:

1. Resource collaboration – the danger of natural scarcity: effective climate action measures and flexible supply chains enabled by global cooperation largely absorb the impacts of climate change on food production. However, shortages in water and metals and minerals cannot be avoided…
2. Resource constraints – the danger of divergent distress: current crises draw focus and slow climate action, exposing the most vulnerable countries to hunger and energy shocks… In the absence of intervention, the water and mineral shortages experienced in the Resource collaboration scenario act as a multiplier to broader risks…
3. Resource competition – the danger of resource autarkies: distrust drives a push for self-sufficiency in high-income countries limiting the need for rivalry over food and water to a degree, but widening divides between countries. State intervention is centred on the resource most exposed to a concentration in supply – critical metals and minerals – leading to shortages, price wars and the transformation of business models across industries…
4. Resource control – the danger of resource wars: alongside the weaponisation of metals and minerals explored in Resource competition, geopolitical dynamics exacerbate climate-induced shortages in food and water. This results in a truly global, multi-resource crisis, with widespread socioeconomic impacts that exceed those faced in other futures in both scope and scale, including famine and water scarcity refugees…

Each scenario outlined presents a unique set of environmental and socioeconomic advantages and disadvantages. To aid business leaders and policymakers in their efforts to prepare for and mitigate the ongoing crises, the Report provides a sample of potential mid-term futures, which, while not exhaustive, are illustrative.

The possibilities of foresight and preparedness

The world faces a critical juncture as ongoing shocks continue to unfold, and we enter a period of low-growth, low-investment, and low-cooperation. The actions taken today will determine the future risk landscape, and it is essential to address current crises while keeping the longer-term view in mind. Recent events such as COVID-19 and the cost-of-living crises are causing economic, educational, and health-related setbacks for many, exacerbating environmental, geopolitical risks, and threatening global security and stability.

To build resilience to longer-term risks and achieve a more sustainable, and prosperous world, the WEF suggests four themes to chart a path towards a more prosperous world:

1.   strengthening risk identification and foresight

2.   recalibrating the present value of “future” risks

3.   investing in multi-domain risk preparedness

4.   strengthening preparedness and response cooperation.

As the authors of the Report conclude: “In a complex risks outlook, there must be a better balance between national preparedness and global cooperation. We need to act together, to shape a pathway out of cascading crises and build collective preparedness to the next global shock, whatever form it might take. Leaders must embrace complexity and act on a balanced vision to create a stronger, prosperous shared future.”

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Resources

Global Risks Report 2023

Explore the Global Risks Report

Global Risks Report 2023, Part One

Global Risks Report 2023, Part Two 

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IMAGE: Used under licence from shutterstock.com

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A participant in the UN Global Compact, CourtHeath Consulting seeks to raise awareness about the Sustainable Development Goals and the principles of the Global Compact with business and government organisations in Victoria.

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